West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread

[muskie]

Odds slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.

Watch this space.

I think we're fucked.

[easthammer]

I have today brought out the spreadsheet for a bit of PERT-based analysis. Used normally to predict the expected time for events in projects, I have adapted the method for assessing the likelihood of points being achieved ( rather than timings). I won't bore you with the workings, but in previous years, it has been reasonably accurate.

Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)

I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone 

West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46  and 45 points respectively

Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay

BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.

Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.

 

[Mad Ferret]

I think our momentum is crucial.  We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins.  I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.

I watched Liverpool yesterday and they were absolute dog shit. I think if we are at our best, we could get something up there.

I agree. Play like we did at Chelsea and we have a chance.

And we have a better defence now. Keeping more clean sheets.

[threesixty]

360.

Statistics can be misleading.

Here's a stat. They have lost 3 competitive games since August. They have stumbled recently but are 5 points clear at the top of the league,a hiccup doesn't signify 'very poor form'. 

 

 

7 games is not a hiccup. 
city will win if arsenal do not regain the form they had before Xmas. 
it’s very poor form in contrast to what they’ve been doing previously. if we take that form and project it for the remainder of the season and we take cities and project that, Arsenal do not win the title. 

just like if you take spurs form and project that against our form then we stay up and they go down. 

the interesting thing about our league is every team is capable of beating any team on their day. This makes the form thing more interesting because it’s less about the quality of teams you face each week and more about how well your team performs to their own abilities. 
I.e. any team if on the day if not completely 100% on their game, whether it’s city or Arsenal, they won’t get good results in the PL.
There are no “easy run of games” for any team from what I can see. 

[Dick Shaftsbury]

I think our momentum is crucial.  We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins.  I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.

I watched Liverpool yesterday and they were absolute dog shit. I think if we are at our best, we could get something up there.

[Massive Attack]

Just means we've got to do it the hard way after making it a lot more difficult for ourselves than it needed to be and relying on those above us to keep tripping up. I prefer to remain hopeful tempered with realism. There is still a chance to stay up as long as we don't gift anymore chances away. Thank God for Spurs choking just when we needed them to so to also keep Forest honest and not just a 2 horse race to relegation.

[Tomshardware]

I think our momentum is crucial.  We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins.  I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.

[Rossal]

I know they have been shit at home but Spurs remaining home games are pretty decent. 

We need some wins, and probably a minimum of 3 points from Liverpool and Fulham? 

[Massive Attack]

Fulham at home
Forest at home
Brighton away 
Chelsea away 
Man Utd at home

How many points dropped there, that's what we will look back on I think......not to mention being Wolves' only win 

Moreso the Wolves battering and Forest results.

[Westham67]

Spurs defence looks fragile their goal difference is worth a point on us now but the could change the way they played with Igor at the helm 

[Rossal]

Fulham at home
Forest at home
Brighton away 
Chelsea away 
Man Utd at home

How many points dropped there, that's what we will look back on I think......not to mention being Wolves' only win 

[twoleftfeet]

It was an ok weekend, we made up a point on Forest and Spurs. Just 2 behind Forest and 4 behind Spurs. Also maintained 6 points to Leeds.
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City

How different it could have looked if not for that 102nd minute goal during the 4 minutes of additional time vs Man Utd.

[Mex Martillo]

It was an ok weekend, we made up a point on Forest and Spurs. Just 2 behind Forest and 4 behind Spurs. Also maintained 6 points to Leeds.
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City

[Massive Attack]

Maybe he meant for their usual high standards? I don't see it that way although they did drop 4 crucial points back to back against Teams they really shouldn't at this stage of the season if they want to win the League, especially to 1 of the worst Premier League Teams at the bottom. I like to call it the Arteta Effect.  

[only1billybonds]

360.

Statistics can be misleading.

Here's a stat. They have lost 3 competitive games since August. They have stumbled recently but are 5 points clear at the top of the league,a hiccup doesn't signify 'very poor form'. 

[Manuel]

If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure. 

Not really sure what that means, I don't think it's a lack of bollocks that is stopping us from turning draws into wins. The reality is we just ain't good enough to do it against some sides.

I don't think both results will go against us, hope not anyway.

I just meant if we'll crumble or have the bollocks to not let it get us down after clawing away closer then being 5 behind again.. 

Well that would be down to the management and captain etc to make sure it doesn't happen, but I doubt it will with 10 games left still. I think Forest have Man City after Brighton.

[fraser]

Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.

Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.

If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure. 

Not really sure what that means, I don't think it's a lack of bollocks that is stopping us from turning draws into wins. The reality is we just ain't good enough to do it against some sides.

I don't think both results will go against us, hope not anyway.

I just meant if we'll crumble or have the bollocks to not let it get us down after clawing away closer then being 5 behind again.. 

[Manuel]

.. 11 games is still a long way to go and we just have to win one more game than Forest do.. 




 

Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.

Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.

If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure. 

Not really sure what that means, I don't think it's a lack of bollocks that is stopping us from turning draws into wins. The reality is we just ain't good enough to do it against some sides.

I don't think both results will go against us, hope not anyway.

[fraser]

.. 11 games is still a long way to go and we just have to win one more game than Forest do.. 



 

Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.

Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.

If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure. 

[Manuel]

.. 11 games is still a long way to go and we just have to win one more game than Forest do.. 


 

Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.

Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.

[Nutsin]

Fuck me Spurs are shit. I watched their game today and they were pony. Clueless at the back.

Fuck I hope they go down.

[fraser]

We've made up ground on all of the bottom teams over the last 6 games, if we can carry on the same over the next 11 we will stay up. 

Spurs have won once in their last eleven Forest twice I think.. So both in awful form. 

It's really easy to be negative isn't it and we're all guilty of it. But nobody expects us to get anything out of Arsenal and Liverpool.. But.. We were all expecting both of them to fuck up against teams who are down there with us but on form less likely to get anything. I bet their fans are saying the same... 11 games is still a long way to go and we just have to win one more game than Forest do.. 


It's the hope that kills, apologies if this has renewed anyone's. 

[Sydney_Iron]

Its really between us and Forest for that last drop spot i feel, Spurs have too much quality in that squad to go down, they may go close but looking at the remaining fixtures i think they have the easiest run in, if such a thing exists in the PL Would be extatically happy to be proven wrong however 

Forest like us keep fucking up though, they battered Wolves and only got a point and the better side against Liverpool and lost to a last gasp goal, sound familiar?

We are at Liverpool next so hopefully they don't improve from their performance at Forest, they are at home but look well suspect at the back, we just need a little luck and to have real go at them rather than give them too much respect and it could well be one of those famous away days against the odds.

 COYI

[threesixty]

360.

Where is this 'very poor form' that you say Arsenal find themselves in? They have lost twice in all competitions since November and are still in every competition that they entered. 

Fuck me,I wish West Ham could hit such a slump!

 

 

 

 

Arsenal had won 2 of their last 7 league games until today. 
Thats poor form for any side aiming for the title. They just beat the side 2nd from bottom in the form league and previously drew against wolves who only have 10 points. So no they are not in good form statistically.

[Gary Strodders shank]

Sunderland although on 36 points and needing only a few more for certain safety are a team that look like they have well and truly shot their bolt.

All the early form has dissipated and they look like they will merely stumble over the line due to a not too difficult run in on paper.

They do face spurs Forest and Leeds however and could shape how things will unfold at the bottom

However if they were to fail to win any of those It could put them bang in the mix before they face Wolves as I can't see them picking up a win elsewhere.

A long shot but there will be many a twist and turn before the fat lady sings I'm sure.
 

[zebthecat]

We have crept closer to Forest and Spurs and Arsenal did us a huge favour today.
There is still hope.