West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread

[muskie]

Odds slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.

Watch this space.

I think we're fucked.

[Mad Ferret]

Fingers crossed that does get moved.

Imagine the atmosphere at 8pm Sat night rather than at 12:30.

[Manuel]

Was reading the early Saturday KO against Man City on 14/3 could be moved dependent on if City play away in Europe on the prior Tue or Wed. Will know soon.

Yes 8pm if they play on the Wednesday I believe, but better than 12.30pm 

Not for me

[fraser]

Was reading the early Saturday KO against Man City on 14/3 could be moved dependent on if City play away in Europe on the prior Tue or Wed. Will know soon.

Yes 8pm if they play on the Wednesday I believe, but better than 12.30pm 

[Manuel]

Was reading the early Saturday KO against Man City on 14/3 could be moved dependent on if City play away in Europe on the prior Tue or Wed. Will know soon.

[El Scorchio]

Opta had us at around 70% likely to be relegated. Forest was 23% and Spurs 4% rest of the possibilities less than 1%. 

changing by the week though after Christmas our probability was above 80!

 

I wonder what the odds were on Spurs to go down, a mere 7 games ago, when they were 13 points ahead of us (i.e the drop zone)?

Pretty good odds I imagine. Google tells me 100/1 at the start of the year but not sure if that's true. Lot shorter now.

[Westside]

Opta had us at around 70% likely to be relegated. Forest was 23% and Spurs 4% rest of the possibilities less than 1%. 

changing by the week though after Christmas our probability was above 80!

 

 

I wonder what the odds were on Spurs to go down, a mere 7 games ago, when they were 13 points ahead of us (i.e the drop zone)?

[RBshorty]

“Meet the new Boss. Same as the old Boss.”

Sorry folks. Don’t get your hopes up.

PRIMED FOF THE DROP.!

COYI

[El Scorchio]

New CEO bounce

[Massive Attack]

To give us a real boost for survival to pick everyone up for the final stretch, her announcing her departure by the end of the season would be a huge fillip for us all. Let it be so....

[Pub Bigot]

This is worth discussing here. A what if scenario for you all to chew on. 

There are rumours that Lady Brady is about to leave the club.e The possible reasons for her departure are:

1. Accounts published late due to the club being £100mill in the red.

2. Tara Warren’s taken up a role with the new independent football authority (or whatever they are/called) and we could be under investigation. 

3. Revelations could come out in the very near future about an ”unnamed Premier League executive”.

As the team are building momentum, what would the impact be of any or all of the above in our bid for survival? 

[Massive Attack]

Sp*rs have a full team currently out injured. Once those players are back, they comfortably pick up enough points, sadly!

They only get 2 back from injury by mid March and by that time they will have already played Fulham, Palace and Liverpool before they then face Forest with 8 only games to go. Couple that also with the fact they'll still have their Captain out for the next important game. Players returning, especially those being out long term typically need a bit of time to get up and running, let alone at full tilt at their very best again. Time is running out for them.

https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/footba ... 71922.html

[Mad Ferret]

Sp*rs have a full team currently out injured. Once those players are back, they comfortably pick up enough points, sadly!

[Massive Attack]

The "Because it's X Club" has to be the weakest argument for anyone staying up. I heard Darren Bent and another pundit say that because it's Spurs they can't see them going down. Sorry, doesn't work like that in reality. If you perform poorly enough then the name and stature of a Club alone won't prevent you from going down. As Villa, Newcastle as well as us will testify. I hope that is Spurs mentality going in to the relegation run-in though...

[honky cat]

They were talking about the run in on the 6pm thing on sky last night  They worked out the average league position of the opponents. Ours is 8th, I think forest was 9th/10th, Spurs 11th. So we are certainly favourites to go down with the hardest games. The player pundit however, still thought we'd stay up. Because it's us, and we can pull a shock when needed.

I fancy us to get something Saturday.

[Massive Attack]

Opta had us at around 70% likely to be relegated. Forest was 23% and Spurs 4% rest of the possibilities less than 1%. 

changing by the week though after Christmas our probability was above 80!

Righto, computer says no. The cunts are only 4 points ahead of us with 33 remaining.

[dealcanvey]

Opta had us at around 70% likely to be relegated. Forest was 23% and Spurs 4% rest of the possibilities less than 1%. 

changing by the week though after Christmas our probability was above 80!

[fraser]

How the final EPL table would look if based upon 2026 results only. Ave PPG in brackets.

12. Palace (1.33) 50
13. Brighton (1.13) 46
14. S'land (0.8) 45
15. Leeds (1.22) 44
16. West Ham (1.38) 40
17. Forest (1.13) 39
18. Spurs (0.44) 34
19. Burnley (0.88) 29
20. Wolves (0.77) 18


Interestingly we have the highest points per game for the bottom 9 teams since the turn of the year yet according to some we don't have the bollocks to reap as many points as our relegation rivals 

[fraser]

Bookies have us just under evens so almost 50/50 Forest just under 3s, Spurs 6s

[Manuel]

The Brighton's and the Palace's only need a couple of more wins, so let's keep it real. Leeds rarely lose football matches and Spurs are likely to turn a corner at some point, and as said have very winnable home games ahead.

It's between us and Forest for me, with us favourites to go down. We need a favour from the Seagulls at the weekend.

[easthammer]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  






 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in 

Spurs						0
Fulham	away	3	1	0		1.166666667
Palace	home	3	3	1		2.666666667
Liverpool	away	1	0	0		0.166666667
Notts Forest	home	3	1	1		1.333333333
Sunderland	away	1	1	0		0.833333333
Brighton	home	3	3	0		2.5
Wolves	away	3	3	1		2.666666667
Aston Villa	away	1	0	0		0.166666667
Leeds	home	3	3	0		2.5
Chelsea	away	1	0	0		0.166666667
Everton	home	3	3	1		2.666666667
		25	18	4		16.83333333		17	29	46

 

 

Above is from my workings
Column  1 Optimistic Points  Column 2 Likely Column 3 Pessimistic

[Massive Attack]

Fulham is a massive game for Spurs. Fulham at home and on form should beat them without too much trouble. 


 

It's a good thing they can count on their Leaders in to the Team then like their Captain Romer..oh.

[Mex Martillo]

Fulham is a massive game for Spurs. Fulham at home and on form should beat them without too much trouble. They need this new manager to show he can get them motivated and with the intensity, work rate and skill need to turn things round. Difficult to say what will happen.
But I would not be surprised if Spurs lose, no new manager bounce and then it's not difficult to imagine them getting dragged deeper and deeper towards relegation. Have to say I would love to see that.

[onsideman]

I have today brought out the spreadsheet for a bit of PERT-based analysis. Used normally to predict the expected time for events in projects, I have adapted the method for assessing the likelihood of points being achieved ( rather than timings). I won't bore you with the workings, but in previous years, it has been reasonably accurate.

Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)

I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone 

West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46  and 45 points respectively

Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay

BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.

Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.


 

Palace have the toughest run in, but it's fanciful to suggest they'll only get another 5 points. Had Wolves scored with their penalty yesterday and gone on to win it I might have found it more plausible 

[Massive Attack]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  




 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in 

Getting around half the points left available to them, I'd be very surprised they reach 46, regardless of opposition. 

[Mad Ferret]

Spurs .. will be safe on 46  



 

Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.

Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in