West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 16 Aug 2025, 17:07
Odds slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.
Watch this space.
I think we're fucked.
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West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Page 21 of 79
Odds slashed from 5/1 to 7/2.
Watch this space.
I think we're fucked.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 16:58
easthammer wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 16:03 I have today brought out the spreadsheet for a bit of PERT-based analysis. Used normally to predict the expected time for events in projects, I have adapted the method for assessing the likelihood of points being achieved ( rather than timings). I won't bore you with the workings, but in previous years, it has been reasonably accurate.
Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)
I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone
West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46 and 45 points respectively
Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay
BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.
Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.
Palace have the toughest run in, but it's fanciful to suggest they'll only get another 5 points. Had Wolves scored with their penalty yesterday and gone on to win it I might have found it more plausible
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 16:48
Mad Ferret" wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 16:44Massive Attack" wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 16:35
Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in
Getting around half the points left available to them, I'd be very surprised they reach 46, regardless of opposition.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 16:44
Massive Attack" wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 16:35
Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.
Look at their fixtures mate. They have an easy run-in 
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 16:35
Not a chance they come close to that. Maybe survive sure but not by that amount of points.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 16:03
I have today brought out the spreadsheet for a bit of PERT-based analysis. Used normally to predict the expected time for events in projects, I have adapted the method for assessing the likelihood of points being achieved ( rather than timings). I won't bore you with the workings, but in previous years, it has been reasonably accurate.
Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)
I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone
West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46 and 45 points respectively
Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay
BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.
Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.
Anyway, this is what it suggests ( and you won't be surprised that it is going to be tight)
I have assumed both Burnley and Wolves are gone
West Ham and Forrest will finish on 41 points ( so goal difference will be crucial)
Spurs and Leeds will be safe on 46 and 45 points respectively
Brighton will struggle to 43 points but be okay
BUT Crystal Palace will only have 40 points.
Which means they will be down, although until I did this analysis, I was sure it was us.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 11:13
Dick Shaftsbury" wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 08:58Tomshardware wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 08:50 I think our momentum is crucial. We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins. I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.I watched Liverpool yesterday and they were absolute dog shit. I think if we are at our best, we could get something up there.
I agree. Play like we did at Chelsea and we have a chance.
And we have a better defence now. Keeping more clean sheets.
And we have a better defence now. Keeping more clean sheets.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 11:04
only1billybonds wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 07:57 360.
Statistics can be misleading.
Here's a stat. They have lost 3 competitive games since August. They have stumbled recently but are 5 points clear at the top of the league,a hiccup doesn't signify 'very poor form'.
7 games is not a hiccup.
city will win if arsenal do not regain the form they had before Xmas.
it’s very poor form in contrast to what they’ve been doing previously. if we take that form and project it for the remainder of the season and we take cities and project that, Arsenal do not win the title.
just like if you take spurs form and project that against our form then we stay up and they go down.
the interesting thing about our league is every team is capable of beating any team on their day. This makes the form thing more interesting because it’s less about the quality of teams you face each week and more about how well your team performs to their own abilities.
I.e. any team if on the day if not completely 100% on their game, whether it’s city or Arsenal, they won’t get good results in the PL.
There are no “easy run of games” for any team from what I can see.
city will win if arsenal do not regain the form they had before Xmas.
it’s very poor form in contrast to what they’ve been doing previously. if we take that form and project it for the remainder of the season and we take cities and project that, Arsenal do not win the title.
just like if you take spurs form and project that against our form then we stay up and they go down.
the interesting thing about our league is every team is capable of beating any team on their day. This makes the form thing more interesting because it’s less about the quality of teams you face each week and more about how well your team performs to their own abilities.
I.e. any team if on the day if not completely 100% on their game, whether it’s city or Arsenal, they won’t get good results in the PL.
There are no “easy run of games” for any team from what I can see.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:58
Tomshardware wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 08:50 I think our momentum is crucial. We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins. I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.
I watched Liverpool yesterday and they were absolute dog shit. I think if we are at our best, we could get something up there.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:51
Just means we've got to do it the hard way after making it a lot more difficult for ourselves than it needed to be and relying on those above us to keep tripping up. I prefer to remain hopeful tempered with realism. There is still a chance to stay up as long as we don't gift anymore chances away. Thank God for Spurs choking just when we needed them to so to also keep Forest honest and not just a 2 horse race to relegation.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:50
I think our momentum is crucial. We have to keep getting points but more importantly wins. I resigned to our annual defeat at Liverpool, we have to beat Fulham.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:43
I know they have been shit at home but Spurs remaining home games are pretty decent.
We need some wins, and probably a minimum of 3 points from Liverpool and Fulham?
We need some wins, and probably a minimum of 3 points from Liverpool and Fulham?
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:38
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:38
Spurs defence looks fragile their goal difference is worth a point on us now but the could change the way they played with Igor at the helm
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:27
Fulham at home
Forest at home
Brighton away
Chelsea away
Man Utd at home
How many points dropped there, that's what we will look back on I think......not to mention being Wolves' only win
Forest at home
Brighton away
Chelsea away
Man Utd at home
How many points dropped there, that's what we will look back on I think......not to mention being Wolves' only win
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:20
Mex Martillo" wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 08:13 It was an ok weekend, we made up a point on Forest and Spurs. Just 2 behind Forest and 4 behind Spurs. Also maintained 6 points to Leeds.
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City
How different it could have looked if not for that 102nd minute goal during the 4 minutes of additional time vs Man Utd.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:13
It was an ok weekend, we made up a point on Forest and Spurs. Just 2 behind Forest and 4 behind Spurs. Also maintained 6 points to Leeds.
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City
But next weekend does not look good.
Liverpool v West Ham may be a point but looks like nothing
Brighton v Forest, Forest have better form, but Brighton are at home
Fulham v Spurs, Fulham have better form and are at home
Leeds V M City, should be 3 points for City
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 08:10
Maybe he meant for their usual high standards? I don't see it that way although they did drop 4 crucial points back to back against Teams they really shouldn't at this stage of the season if they want to win the League, especially to 1 of the worst Premier League Teams at the bottom. I like to call it the Arteta Effect. 
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 07:57
360.
Statistics can be misleading.
Here's a stat. They have lost 3 competitive games since August. They have stumbled recently but are 5 points clear at the top of the league,a hiccup doesn't signify 'very poor form'.
Statistics can be misleading.
Here's a stat. They have lost 3 competitive games since August. They have stumbled recently but are 5 points clear at the top of the league,a hiccup doesn't signify 'very poor form'.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 06:48
fraser wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 06:43I just meant if we'll crumble or have the bollocks to not let it get us down after clawing away closer then being 5 behind again..
Well that would be down to the management and captain etc to make sure it doesn't happen, but I doubt it will with 10 games left still. I think Forest have Man City after Brighton.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 06:43
Manuel wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 05:17fraser wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 04:44Manuel wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 02:27Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.
Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure.Not really sure what that means, I don't think it's a lack of bollocks that is stopping us from turning draws into wins. The reality is we just ain't good enough to do it against some sides.
I don't think both results will go against us, hope not anyway.
I just meant if we'll crumble or have the bollocks to not let it get us down after clawing away closer then being 5 behind again..
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 05:17
fraser wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 04:44Manuel wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 02:27Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.
Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure.
Not really sure what that means, I don't think it's a lack of bollocks that is stopping us from turning draws into wins. The reality is we just ain't good enough to do it against some sides.
I don't think both results will go against us, hope not anyway.
I don't think both results will go against us, hope not anyway.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 04:44
Manuel wrote: ↑23 Feb 2026, 02:27Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.
Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.
If we fall 5 behind at the weekend we'll see who has bollocks for sure.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 02:27
Not sure about a long way to go, but when it's put like that it feels very possible. If Brighton can beat Forest next week they could be in freefall (if they're not already) but if they win and we lose to Liverpool then it's a 5 point gap with 10 games left.
Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.
Too late now, but even a point against Forest in December would have been OK.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 02:22
Fuck me Spurs are shit. I watched their game today and they were pony. Clueless at the back.
Fuck I hope they go down.
Fuck I hope they go down.
Re: West Ham United 25/26 relegation thread
Posted: 23 Feb 2026, 02:16
We've made up ground on all of the bottom teams over the last 6 games, if we can carry on the same over the next 11 we will stay up.
Spurs have won once in their last eleven Forest twice I think.. So both in awful form.
It's really easy to be negative isn't it and we're all guilty of it. But nobody expects us to get anything out of Arsenal and Liverpool.. But.. We were all expecting both of them to fuck up against teams who are down there with us but on form less likely to get anything. I bet their fans are saying the same... 11 games is still a long way to go and we just have to win one more game than Forest do..
It's the hope that kills, apologies if this has renewed anyone's.
Spurs have won once in their last eleven Forest twice I think.. So both in awful form.
It's really easy to be negative isn't it and we're all guilty of it. But nobody expects us to get anything out of Arsenal and Liverpool.. But.. We were all expecting both of them to fuck up against teams who are down there with us but on form less likely to get anything. I bet their fans are saying the same... 11 games is still a long way to go and we just have to win one more game than Forest do..
It's the hope that kills, apologies if this has renewed anyone's.